Apprehending the Future - Wiki Commentary

This article presenting some good points and ideas in identifying emerging technologies. Mentioned in the article is the Delphi Method which deals with bringing in the experts and having them discuss various topics. This in itself is a good idea however this in itself is still a prediction. The other issues surrounding this method is how informed is the individual claiming to be an expert to include the method the Delphi Process is carried out. The method of gaming prediction is an approach that was utilized by the Iowa Electronic Markets in the 1960s. What is not mentioned the military has done these types of predictions long before that. They are called war games where simulated battles are carried out and once the battle is done an observation is made to see what could have been done better to change the outcome of the battle. Even today is our new mode of fighting there is cyber war games which play out the defense or offense of a computer network. This type of prediction can be good but it must be expected that the potential enemy has the same type of knowledge or ability as the opponent that you are using to play their role.