Sunday, September 13, 2009

Modified Delphi Process

1. List the url to your blog post:
http://securecybersecurity.blogspot.com/


2. Discuss the Delphi process and how we can modify it to collaborate and gain consensus. Some of the modifications to the process are anonymous, but anonymity takes time.

Generally participants comment on their own forecasts, the responses of others, and on the progress of the panel as a whole. At any moment they can revise their earlier statements. While in regular group meetings participants tend to stick to previously stated opinions and often conform too much to group leader, the Delphi method prevents it. The Delphi method calls for anonymity with all participants and even after reports become published anonymity remains.

Modification can come come in terms of allowing individuals to weight their predictions on a scale thus allowing a percentage to be taken to include being able to scope predictions. A likert model would be the best scale commonly used in questionnaires, and is the most widely used scale in survey research.

3. How can we hasten the process?

I don't know of any methods to accelerate the process other than obtaining the experts quicker and giving them a full debrief of the situation before allowing them to input their ideas/thoughts.

4. How does open or closed collaboration affect the results?

Currently a big problem is misinformation with the experts. If the experts had a period of time to ensure that they are not misinformed they would be better able to make better prediction. I think that open collaboration after results allow individuals to ensure that they understood the topic however closed collaboration could allow an individual to think they made the appropriate choice when in reality they have not.

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